Suspense builds for Delaware G.O.P. Presidential Primary
It wasn't supposed to be this way.
Mitt Romney had sealed the Republican Presidential nomination and that was it.
But Newt Gingrich had other ideas. He would go for broke here in Delaware, relying on the state's zest for retail campaigning; collect some endorsements; and count on apathy on the Romney side. Gingrich got a boost from some inexcusable missteps from the Romney camp.
Will Gingrich actually prevail here in Delaware tomorrow - Tuesday - Delaware Republican Presidential Primary Day?
We shall see. For Gingrich to win, three things must happen:
(1). Solid downstate turn-out in the state's more traditional areas, the folks who have consistently voted for the more conservative candidates over the years, from Clatworthy to O'Donnell to Urquhart.
(2). Last-minute switches to Gingrich even from Republicans who were inclined to vote for Romney, and who assume he's clinched the nomination. In fact, the perception of Romney as the inevitable nominee may give these folks more latitude to cast a protest vote. Gingrich is now the most viable anti-Romney. That's how Gingrich could actually do quite well in northern New Castle County.
Some voters may want to reward Gingrich simply for paying attention to Delaware.
(3). Low turn-out: It's generally assumed the anti-Romney voters are more motivated than the Romney voters.
Given his establishment support, though, it would seem Romney retains the edge. Still, when someone like Michele Rollins extols the virtues of Mitt Romney, watch out!
Meanwhile, national political reporters and pundits have caught on that Gingrich has been spending a lot of time in Delaware, and if Gingrich is to win ANY state Tuesday, it will likely be Delaware.
If Gingrich were to win Delaware, then what? A Gingrich win would probably trigger a round of stories that Romney-the-inevitable ain't Romney-the-lovable: Where retail politics still matters - and where the Romney campaign saw no point in carpet-bombing Gingrich via Philadelphia television - Newt could topple the anointed one.
BREAKING NEWS (2:15 p.m., Monday): Delaware G.O.P. National Committeewoman Priscilla Rakestraw - on the "Rick Jensen Show" - has just switched her support from Mitt Romney to Newt Gingrich. Gingrich says he's "very very honored and deeply grateful."
Posted at 8:10am on April 23, 2012 by Allan Loudell
Why the marginalization of Ron Paul. I have been to many Tea party rallies, including rallies downstate, and there are far more anti-Romney forces who would support Dr. Paul rather than the ex-House speaker.
As Mr. Loudell has noted before, many of the anti-Romney forces are moral conservatives, which cannot be reconciled with voting for somebody who had multiple mistresses (and probably still does) and asked his wife to sign divorce papers while she was in bed dying from cancer.
Moreoever, Dr. Paul is widely perceived as the only candidate with a significant change from the status quo.
From a standpoint of government spending, Romney, Obama and Gingrich are identical.
For change, it's Dr. Ron Paul.
Mon, Apr 23, 2012 8:40am
My analysis answers your question, teatime.
Gingrich has put himself in a position to win the Delaware G.O.P. Primary because of retail politics: His decision to campaign strenuously in the First State.
Ron Paul, for all his virtues, hasn't even set foot ONCE in Delaware during this current election cycle.
Mike from Delaware
Mon, Apr 23, 2012 8:53am
As I have said in previous comments here, that I'm leaning towards voting for Newt on Tuesday. I don't think he'll get enough delegates to win, but he may keep Mitt from getting enough so that the convention will decide. Mitt is a good man; Newt's got baggage. I surly don't approve of the life choices Newt's made. However, Romney seems to be too comfortable, he knows he's got it sewn up. He's cruising. The fire doesn't seem to be there in his belly, like it is for Newt.
Unfortunately, people are flawed. I am flawed and have made more than my fair number of mistakes in my life. As God has forgiven me, so does God forgive Newt, IF he repented of his sins. He tells us he has. So If the Resurrected Christ can forgive Newt and Callista of their actions, who are we to not forgive them. He's not running for Pope, but for President.
Teatime, you cast stones at Newt saying he probably still does have multiple mistresses. That's a cheap shot and an unfounded remark, unless you know something no one else knows. None of us can cast stones as we all are sinners saved by the grace of God.
Gingrich might be the right person for the job as Prez given the international problems we're facing. He can be tough like a Reagan, and Newt has spent his life studying this stuff. This stuff is NOT Mitt's forte. Newt has good ideas on how to fix the economy, and his plan doesn't call for sticking it to folks like me who will be getting Social Security in the next 5 years while giving more tax breaks to his millionaire pals, which also benefits himself. If Mitt wants MY vote, then he's got to change that business of sticking it to me and folks like me for Social Security and Medicare. Newt found a way to fix things and not mess with folks. Surely Mitt can too.
I've paid into the Social Security trust fund as a full time worker for 42 years, and a few years before doing summer jobs as a student. I'll NOT vote for someone who's going to NOW say too bad for you. I'll vote for Obama before voting for someone who's plan is to stick it to me when there are other ways to go that won't hurt all of us who've done our part and now expect the government to do its part. THAT is a deal-breaker for me.
Ron Paul is even worse in that arena. He's got no chance of winning the votes of folks like me or the Senior vote, meaning he's got no chance of winning the nomination or the Presidency. Dr. Paul, a good man, but is not the right person to be the President.
Mon, Apr 23, 2012 10:31am
I plan to vote for Newt (the last real anti-Romney in the race) on Tuesday in hopes that a win in Delaware will take more power from Romney at the GOP convention.
I think that Romney will get the nomination BUT removing delegates from him gives Newt, Santorum (and even Ron Paul) more political "chips" at the GOP convention.
Maybe Newt/Santorum/Paul will have enough "chips" to help in the VP choice and secure themselves good spots on the Romney administration. Ron Paul as the Head of the Fed...only one who would aggressively seek to dismantle the Fed. Secretary of Defense Santorum? Newt as Secretary of State?
Mon, Apr 23, 2012 10:48am
Since Mitt Romney is taking such a beating on this blog, I really invite a pro-Romney person to come here and make the case for voting for Romney in Tuesday's Delaware G.O.P. Primary (And also to respond to some of the arguments above...)
Mon, Apr 23, 2012 2:18pm
On our airwaves (2:15 p.m.) on the "Rick Jensen Show" --
Delaware G.O.P. National Committeewoman Priscilla Rakestraw has just switched her support from Mitt Romney to Newt Gingrich!
Mike from Delaware
Mon, Apr 23, 2012 5:19pm
Here is an interesting article explaining that Social Security is not in trouble that can't be easily fixed. GOP take note. This isn't rocket science to make SS solvent longer than the 2033 year that is it now.
This can be the Achilles Heal for the GOP winning 2012.
I used to work at the pizza joint next to Republican headquarters and got to know Priscilla Rakestraw rather well. She really is a dear woman, but I had a most difficult time trying to persuade her that conservatives are more winnable than moderates at least on a national level. She was gung-ho Romney two years ago and was convinced that only he could win. Unfortunately, my friend may be a arriving to the party a bit late, but you've heard the old saying about better late than never, right?
I would not put it past Newt to pull a rabbit out of his hat come convention time. He may know something we don't know. Stay tuned.
Mon, Apr 23, 2012 7:55pm
MFD: I read the Tom Harkin article, and his proposal is very sensible. Problem is, his party castigated the GOP when they wanted to do the same thing. "They want to put Grandma in the street eating dog food, etc." Now if Harkin and the Democrats want to make good on it, that's fine with me.
I must also remind you that President George W. Bush, whom you so despise, was thrown under the bus for warning us 10 years ago that SSA and Medicare needed to be fixed.
I don't care who fixes it, but let's get on with it!
Mike from Delaware
Mon, Apr 23, 2012 11:07pm
Mrpizza: Bush Jr wanted to essentially eliminate SS and put folks in a 401 K plan. Part of his plan was to stick it to folks in my age bracket back then. Anyone born AFTER 1950 got screwed. I was born in 1951. So I didn't like his plan and wanted no parts of it. THAT is why Bush was so castigated by the DEMS and folks like me on the Social Security issue. He wasn't the first to say SS needed some tweaking, but as a good Republican, he hated SS, because it was a DEM program and the GOP was tired of this DEM program that folks like and that's successful (75 years is a great track record for any program). They want a GOP program to replace SS. That's why some Republicans Do Not want to fix SS, they'd rather it die or be eliminated.
I agree with you, the Tom Harkin proposal is a good one and I don't remember the GOP ever wanting to raise the ceiling on the SS tax. But that is what needs to be done, that's an easy fix and will solve the immediate issues. Then the government could start looking at Newt's idea for the young folks. Doesn't sound difficult.
Mon, Apr 23, 2012 11:33pm
MFD: There's the problem right there. It isn't that difficult at all. But does government ever want to uncomplicate anything?
Tue, Apr 24, 2012 12:47am
Mitt Romney is getting beaten up. I don't want to do it further. but that aside, when looking for any redeeming value from his supporters, they all fall back on that..... they think... he can win.
In other words, they are saying we either don't like him or don't know much about him, but we are supporting him because we think he can win.
Well, if enough people backed my grandmother, she could probably win too, but though I love her to death, I don't think she would make a good president...
I have to agree with Newt's assessment that voters are being told who to vote for by the manipulation of the media. Not so much you, Allan, but the snippets that get mass-produced by the big sources, and then get picked up and run by all the little ones....
There is a lot inside of campaigns that does not get reported. Those of us who are junkies, and watch a ton of live campaigns, are amazed that the most inane moments are announced as news, and the most profound, awe inspiring sentences, are simply ignored. It is almost as if the media were sinisterly manipulating their reporting to create a feeling that will move people unwittingly toward one candidate over the other... ( we saw how they manipulated the news of the Trayvon shooting, to paint it more racist than it was)...
That is why Delaware is so important. Florida, Ohio, and of course PA would be big media states. But in South Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana, which are smaller media outlets, other candidate out-performed Romney there.
Romney seems to only succeed where the media are in control. I certainly hope that Delawareans vote on who they like, on who they think is a better person, and not... on who they are told will be the strongest candidate to win.
When every American votes their heart, we will get our country back. When they vote how those in control want them to vote, things will remain the same.
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